Listening to debates pre-Brexit, one of the most familiar cries from the British public to politicians was "we need more information, a more informed debate", implying "tell us more accurately how our vote will play out, you must know!" but then when trends or figures were presented "you can't believe any expert".
Unpacking these sentiments is enlightening. Effectively the clamour was for a detailed model and computation of what leaving the EU versus staying in might mean, particularly in practical financial ways like affordability of housing.
The fact is, no-one knows, even approximately. In practice you can't predict it. The ecosystem is too complex, with huge numbers of feedback loops and linked components, many of which even individually are almost unknowable.Read More